Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
